Series:PISM Bulletin

Growing Risk of a “Fixit:” The Finnish Eurozone Dilemma

Growing Risk of a “Fixit:” The Finnish Eurozone Dilemma

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: eurozone; Finland; economy; Euro; Europe; European Union

Greece is no longer the only country at risk of leaving the eurozone. A referendum on abandoning the common currency is likely to appear in the coming years in Finland, whose economy is mired in crisis. The euro is not the reason for the recession, however, the currency union’s framework lacks monetary policy tools. Even so, there is no guarantee that re-adopting its own currency would help Finland.

More...

Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Afghanistan: New Opportunities for Talks with the Taliban

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; international security; ISAF - International Security Assistance Force; NATO; Security

Since the end of the ISAF mission and new territorial gains by the Afghan Taliban, there has been a visible intensification of diplomatic efforts to convince rebels to enter into peace talks with the government in Kabul. Although the Taliban’s official conditions are still unrealistic, a number of new factors suggest negotiations are possible.

More...

Taiwan Elections: Implications for Its Ties with the Mainland and Internationally

Taiwan Elections: Implications for Its Ties with the Mainland and Internationally

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Taiwan; East Asia; elections; parliamentary elections; presidential elections

In presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan on 16 January, the chairwoman of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Tsai Ing-wen, stands a great chance to be elected president and the DPP may take over the parliament, the Legislative Yuan. Tsai’s victory might weaken cross-strait ties. There is also the possibility for less stability in the Taiwan Strait. The uncertainty about cross-strait relations may narrow the room for launching talks about an EU-Taiwan investment agreement.

More...

The Dutch EU Presidency: Between Seeking Unity and Policy Effectiveness

The Dutch EU Presidency: Between Seeking Unity and Policy Effectiveness

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Netherlands; EU Council presidency; Europe; European Union

The Netherlands, which has just taken over the European Union’s rotating presidency, will have to urgently seek unity among the Member States on several interconnected fronts to deliver effective solutions to existential EU crises. Although the Netherlands is in a good position to take on this challenging task, it might find itself torn between acting as an honest broker and the desire to solve problems in a smaller group. This choice might define the evolution of the EU in the direction of more flexible integration.

More...

The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis

The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; economy; Migrations; refugees; society

The pressure caused by the refugee crisis in Germany has not skipped past the minimum wage. Abolition of the government’s flagship social project, however, is unlikely; rather to be expected are exceptions for asylum seekers and additional vocational activation programs. German ideas in this area have a chance to become benchmarks for EU members struggling with similar issues, as well as starting points for “enhanced cooperation” on policies of integration of refugees.

More...

Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Three Months of Russian Intervention in Syria: The Military and Political Implications

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; Russia; conflict; Middle East; Security; Syria

As Russia’s military operation in Syria passes the three-month mark, the milestone demonstrates not only the growing capacity of the country’s expeditionary forces (aviation in particular) but also highlights their weaknesses, primarily logistical problems and the lack of equipment. On one hand, such long-term actions will be a growing challenge to Russia’s finances, but for its military they are an opportunity to test equipment and new types of weapons. Russia’s engagement in Syria has not reduced its involvement in Ukraine. At the same time, the success of its military operations in Syria are important because they are intended to strengthen Russia’s position during any peace talks on Syria, which may have a secondary effect of increasing its importance, not only in the Middle East but also in the international arena.

More...

Poland on the UN Security Council

Poland on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Nations Security Council; Poland

The main issues facing the UN Security Council (UNSC) are North Korea’s nuclear programme, the status of Jerusalem, and Russian aggression in Ukraine. Analysis of UNSC member positions indicates several potential sources of conflict but also possible fields of cooperation. Poland must prepare to act in these areas to achieve its goals effectively.

More...

Between Bonn and Katowice: The Challenges in Global Climate Negotiations

Between Bonn and Katowice: The Challenges in Global Climate Negotiations

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate

The global climate summit in Bonn (COP23) in November 2017 was supposed to bring compromise close on areas such as rules for monitoring national climate actions. The universality of these actions, that is, covering both developed and developing countries, was one of the main ideas of the Paris Agreement. In Bonn, however, the divisions between the parties were again made stark, making it difficult to reach compromise. For Poland, as host of the next climate summit (COP24) in December 2018 in Katowice, finalising these negotiations will be a top priority.

More...

China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; China; North Korea; Security

The South Korean president’s visit to China (13–16 December) sprung from a mutual willingness to improve bilateral relations. China opposes the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile-defence system, an issue that remains a sticking point in Sino-South Korea ties. Their respective North Korea policy also has contributed to the deteriorating bilateral relations. The inability to resolve that issue may lead to diplomatic engagement of countries outside the region, including Poland, to try to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

More...

Cross-Border Cooperation: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Eastern Partnership

Cross-Border Cooperation: An Opportunity to Strengthen the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; Belarus; local government; Poland; Ukraine

One of the main conclusions of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit, which took place on 24 November in Brussels, is the need for greater concentration on interpersonal relations. One cooperation platform mentioned during the summit to strengthen ties between EU and EaP societies and supporting the development of local democracy is cross-border cooperation. Previous experience from the Poland-Belarus-Ukraine-EU programme can be used to support contacts between EaP regions.

More...

Return of the Spectre of a Grexit: The Effects of the Weakening Mandate for Tsipras’ Reform Programme

Return of the Spectre of a Grexit: The Effects of the Weakening Mandate for Tsipras’ Reform Programme

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energy Union; Aleksis Tsipras; economic policy; Europe; Greece

Although the Greek parliament has so far rapidly voted on laws related to a third financial aid package, the risk of slowing the process, or in the worst case, even stopping it is increasing. This in turn may lead to a renewed discussion in the eurozone about revising the assistance package for Greece or about the growing threat of a Grexit.

More...

The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

The European Border and Coast Guard: Potentials and Risks

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: borders; Europe; European Union; Migrations; Schengen Area

The establishment of an EU border service is a step towards community control of border management in the Schengen zone. Whilst such an arrangement seems beneficial in terms of increasing the efficiency of border control, it is controversial because it interferes with the rights of the Member States.

More...

The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

The Historic Paris Climate Agreement and Its Significance for Poland and the EU

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; economy

On 12 December 2015 in Paris, and for the first time in almost 20 years, the world’s countries, some 195 in total, reached a brokered deal with the objective to prevent irreversible climate change. Two key provisions of the agreement are its global scope, requiring all 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the marked absence of an endpoint within the treaty. These provisions help create a system of coordination of global efforts against climate change, ending the EU’s isolation on the issue. This in turn will reduce the negative consequences of its climate change policy on the competitiveness of the overall European and Polish economies.

More...

New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

New Phase in Russia’s Relations with Iran: Not Only Syria, Not Only Opportunism

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Russia; conflict; international security; Middle East; Security; Syria

The final nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran has not resulted in worsening relations or a renewal of the historical rivalry between Moscow and Tehran. Russia and Iran have common interests in and outside Syria, namely strengthening the areas of bilateral diplomatic, military and economic cooperation. The visit by Russia’s president to Iran and his participation in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran on 23 November 2015, suggest a new phase in Russia’s relations with Iran, which, though, might have a negative impact on the interests of the West, Turkey and Arab countries.

More...

The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

The Case of Rustavi-2 TV: Escalation of the Conflict between Government and Opposition in Georgia

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; Caucasus; domestic policy; elections; mass media; parliamentary elections

A series of court judgments relating to the ownership of private television station Rustavi-2 has led to an escalation of the conflict between the government and opposition in Georgia. For the opposition United National Movement (UNM), the rulings may mean restrictions on its freedom to present its views in media before parliamentary elections scheduled for the second half of 2016. On the other hand, by influencing the courts and media, the governing Georgian Dream is making the same mistakes that led to UNM’s loss of power. Without interfering in the dispute between the government and opposition, the EU should exert pressure on the authorities in Tbilisi to accelerate the reform of judiciary.

More...

Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Indonesia’s Potential as a Stronger Partner of Poland in Asia

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Indonesia; Asia and Pacific; economy; education

This year, Poland celebrates the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Indonesia, one of the rising powers in Asia, a stable democracy, and characterised by its high pace of economic growth. Although trade has grown in recent years, the potential of economic as well as political cooperation remains untapped. To improve this situation, enhanced cooperation on the provincial level can be effective, as Indonesia is highly decentralised. Moreover, a visit by high-level Polish officials in Indonesia would support Polish businesses seeking to enter this prospective, but difficult market.

More...

Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Revision of European Neighbourhood Policy: Half-Hearted Reform

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: neighbourhood policy; Association Agreement; Europe, European Union; European Union foreign policy; Free Trade Agreement

Proposals to improve EU neighbourhood policy are insufficiently ambitious as they do not involve many improvements on the old approach. Implementation of these enhancements would require alignment of financial assistance with strategy goals and reform of the budget support mechanism. The EU should also help associated countries implement Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements.

More...

Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Ukraine: A DCFTA after All

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; economy; Free Trade Agreement; trade

The EU agreement with Ukraine on a free trade zone, or DCFTA, will come into force on 1 January 2016. The result, though, will not produce immediate economic benefits for Ukraine and will also carry the previously announced sanctions on Ukraine by Russia, including an embargo on food imports. In the long term, however, the DCFTA will allow Ukraine to accept the majority of the acquis communautaire and further its rapprochement with the EU, as well as to improve standards and the competitiveness of the economy. Ukrainian authorities need political and financial support from the EU during the first phase of the DCFTA’s implementation, especially in countering the Russian sanctions.

More...

Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Russian Foreign Fighters: Time for Syria?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Syria

Foreign fighters have been successfully utilised by Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, where they formed a key element of the separatist forces. Due to Russia’s escalating involvement in Syria, and its Ukraine-based foreign fighters’ often and vocally professed desire to fight against the Islamic State, one could assume that Moscow, while officially denying rumours of being involved in ground operations in Syria, may not shy away from deploying such fighters there. However, this will carry risks far greater than those in Ukraine, and could yield negative consequences for Russia.

More...

Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Paris Climate Conference; climate policy

On 30 November, world leaders will gather in Paris for the 21st Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in the hope of reaching a new global deal. There is positive political momentum for an agreement on how to tackle climate change, but the pressure on negotiators is growing and the thorniest issues, such as financing, compliance, and long-term mitigation and adaptation targets are still to be addressed. For the EU, only an ambitious agreement at COP 21 would be beneficial, whereas for Poland, any world-wide agreement can bring short-term political and economic benefits.

More...